The Banque de France estimates that the French economy is running at two-thirds of its productive capacity and that the GDP has already fallen by 6% in the first quarter. The debate on the trade-off between health cost and the economic cost of containment will necessarily intensify.
The violence of the fall is now known. It remains to be seen what the pace and timing of the ascent will be. The Banque de France published on Wednesday its estimate of the drop in activity induced by the confinement of the population to deal with the coronavirus epidemic. This is very close to that of INSEE, economists from the central bank considering that the French productive fabric runs at only 68% of its production capacity, against 65% for those of the statistical institute. Household consumption is down by around 30%. For the two institutes, each month of confinement cuts the annual GDP by 3 points.